Iran may be the new Israel for some

Korath · 11-07-2009, 07:41 AM

Surfing through various forums, blogs, etc. on the Middle East I found a recurrent idea:

Iran may be the new Israel: the enemy on whom we blame all our troubles.

(this is a quote from http://mideasti.blogspot.com/2009/09...g-subtext.html).

Now that's an interesting idea. If Iran really would be perceived by Sunni countries as a bigger thread than Israel than a new political situation in the region may emerge. I know that right now it's a political-fiction scenario, but still... an interesting thought, isn't it?

Ambassador · 11-07-2009, 08:03 AM

This political quagmire is going to ensnare a lot of players in it in the very near future if situations keep deteriorating.

So many emerging economic and political powers have turned there attention towards Iran/Iraq because the Sunni Muslim countries are already very heavily jam-packed with Western investments and establishments after having been under the American/Western circle of influence for so long. (Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia) Iran and Iraq are the wide-open doorways to establishing the East's and Russia's own strategic interests in the Middle East.

The first three emerging powers to jump in will be the proximal countries like Russia, China and Turkey.

Next to jump in will be countries a bit farther away like India and South Korea.

You would see a new form of cold war going on in this one.

Even if the West put sanctions on Iran and the Sunni Muslims followed suit by cutting their multilateral ties with it, it's unlikely that the aforementioned five countries (and some more) will be willing to just keep Iran in the darkness.

When Russia/China/Turkey/India/South Korea refuse to isolate Iran after all these efforts by the Western and Western-backed powers to obliterate Iran's strategic influence, you'll be seeing a lot of geopolitical friction between the East and the West.

Imagining from my own country's perspective:

U.S.:Oi, South Korea, cut your ties with Iran.

South Korea: What the hell, man?

What comes next?

Are we really gonna abandon our precious chance to become Iran's 2nd largest trade partner?

Probably we'll be filling up the economic vacuum left from the mass strategic exodus of the West and the Sunni Muslims.

Switek · 11-07-2009, 08:04 AM

Why not? Saudi - Iranian tensions about their ambitions to lead Muslim world are obviously seen. Add tho this nuclear ambitions of Iran which are the same threat for both Israel and Sunnis (what is very often forgotten).

Korath · 11-07-2009, 08:38 AM

I think Israel has a lot to win by exploiting this opportunity. It may loose the image of the devilish arch-enemy of the region. It doesn't mean stability in the Middle East though...

Switek · 11-07-2009, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Korath

I think Israel has a lot to win by exploiting this opportunity. It may loose the image of the devilish arch-enemy of the region. It doesn't mean stability in the Middle East though...

Existence of Israel were used as a tool by many Muslim regimes to direct mass anger toward those Zionist baby eaters than solve internal problems... I guess that it doesn't work that way any longer. May be this is why evil Iranian will be a target of steering hate.

Ambassador · 11-07-2009, 08:50 AM

Israel simply looks less interesting than Iran now to most of us. At least in the East.

Korath · 11-07-2009, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ambassador

Israel simply looks less interesting than Iran now to most of us. At least in the East.

Good for Israel, isn't it?

Ambassador · 11-07-2009, 09:42 AM

Israel will be as fine as ever with the West eternally backing it.

It's Iran's strategic interest that's at stake.

From this moment until the near future Iran's greatest allies will always be found to its East.

deathil93 · 11-07-2009, 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ambassador

Israel will be as fine as ever with the West eternally backing it.

It's Iran's strategic interest that's at stake.

From this moment until the near future Iran's greatest allies will always be found to its East.

Perheps, but as we saw it can always change as all those countries have ties with Israel and the US. For instance, the Russians delayed indefenitly their deal wit the Iranians about selling them the S300 SAM and I bet that if Israel would ask nicely from China they would do the same too, as we have some sort of a connection with them, can't say exactly what.

Anyway, Iran will remain a dominant threat and ally to both west and east as long as we need oil so... yea...

But as Korath stated, shifting the Muslim world's attention to Iranis not only good, but excellent for Israel.

BAMF · 11-07-2009, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Korath

Good for Israel, isn't it?

Yes and no. Egyptians i spoke to seem to lean on the fact that Israel and the Iranians are planning this behind closed doors. I think the Israelis can bridge the gap between themselves and the arabs by not doing anything about it and leaving it to the arabs to solve it by themselves. The arabs have a common saying that if we have a common enemy "we" deal with it/him/her it's better for us to act as a team instead of going "commando"

On a more personal note, can i ask you a question??

I'm very opened minded about alot of things, including being supportive of the normalization of relations between Israel and Egypt( depending on certain concessions that BOTH sides have to follow) but i have this burning question that i have always wanted to ask......... Don't you guys want to live in "peace and harmony" with the people around you? Aren't you guys "tired" of 60 years of war, hate and tense relations. I'm not anti Semitic or anything but i just find it curious that certain genres of people in Israel are refusing to make certain concessions in order to live without the threat of war always "looming" by??

Thanks

GiladS · 11-07-2009, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BAMF

On a more personal note, can i ask you a question??

I'm very opened minded about alot of things, including being supportive of the normalization of relations between Israel and Egypt( depending on certain concessions that BOTH sides have to follow) but i have this burning question that i have always wanted to ask......... Don't you guys want to live in "peace and harmony" with the people around you? Aren't you guys "tired" of 60 years of war, hate and tense relations. I'm not anti Semitic or anything but i just find it curious that certain genres of people in Israel are refusing to make certain concessions in order to live without the threat of war always "looming" by??

Thanks

Korath isn't Israeli... he's Polish I think.

Anyway, as for your question.

Israel has made concessions when making peace with Egypt and Jordan. Though in both cases it is more of a peace treaty with the regimes of these countries rather than peace with the people as well.

With the Palestinians you have the example of the Oslo Accords and the unilateral pullout from the Gaza Strip which have only backfired..

Extremist Islamists will never acknowledge Israel's right to exists and people such as yourself seem to forget that this is what started the Arab-Israeli conflict some 60 years ago.

"Peace will come when the Arabs will love their children more than they hate us."
Golda Meir

Korath · 11-07-2009, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GiladS

Korath isn't Israeli... he's Polish I think.

Yes, indeed.

@ BAMF

Quote:

I think the Israelis can bridge the gap between themselves and the arabs by not doing anything about it and leaving it to the arabs to solve it by themselves.

I agree with you. I think that by not trying to solve the issue unilaterally Israel could breach the gap. If combined with some reasonable PR - for a change

- Israel could try to present itself as being on the same side of the divine as the rest of Arab countries and that would be fantastic news for the region. BTW, it's a beautiful paradox that by helping some Arabs to fight Israel, Iran is creating a common interest for Arabs and Israelis.

Kaplanr · 11-07-2009, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GiladS

Korath isn't Israeli... he's Polish I think.

Anyway, as for your question.

Israel has made concessions when making peace with Egypt and Jordan. Though in both cases it is more of a peace treaty with the regimes of these countries rather than peace with the people as well.

With the Palestinians you have the example of the Oslo Accords and the unilateral pullout from the Gaza Strip which have only backfired..

Extremist Islamists will never acknowledge Israel's right to exists and people such as yourself seem to forget that this is what started the Arab-Israeli conflict some 60 years ago.

"Peace will come when the Arabs will love their children more than they hate us."
Golda Meir

BAMF; Do you have specific steps in mind? We probably know what they are, and GiladS covered them in general enough terms, with the correct correlation of cause and effect.

I don't know about you and and many others here, but I was already in college when Pres. Sadat visited Israel and the Camp David Accords were signed 2 years later. Even then, professional Egyptian organizations - journalists, writers, lawyers, etc., have boycotted Israel and Israelis. Your press and political cartoonists use the most obscene anti-semitic caricatures and imagery and pass it off as anti-Zionist and/or anti-Israeli freedom of the press. I have to tell you that as an Israeli (albeit one who now lives overseas) I never met another Israeli, including veterans of the 56, 67, and 73 wars who hates Egyptians. They may not have liked you guys, they had little respect for the officers who led your soldiers, and they had no desire to visit the former enemy -- but they didn't hate. The Israeli press has never regularly published the materials your press publishes about Israel.
All told, I think most of us believe that short of emasculating the nation-state itself, there is no step that would satisfy the Egyptian elites who disdain us and seem to guide public policy and public perceptions.
Good (meaning cold) relations with Israel are simply a way to keep a pipeline open to Washington.

Mastermind · 11-07-2009, 09:10 PM

I was watching a show this last week that as background, modern Israel...and then I wen to my computer and took a look at some pics of Iran...what a small difference. Both seem to be completely westernized 9except for a few folks dressed "traditionally"...and the head scarves on the women in Iran did not seem too much of a throwback to the ancient ways. It was just a seeming shame these tow modern nations have to be threateneing bloood and burning death...for what? Iran leaders are so full of crap...all that saber rattling and Isreali leaders so ready to finger point and say, "See...see what monsters?"

Let this s4it get out of hand just for a second and the whole world will change in a blink of an eye to something we would all rather not see.

Ambassador · 11-07-2009, 10:26 PM

Iran looked magnificent during the age of the Shah. It was the wealthiest and the most prosperous country in the Middle East.

The Iran-Iraq war largely obliterated that beauty though. So many infrastructures destroyed, labor force and industry compromised, immense humanitarian and economic damage, etc. (8 years of war, $500+ billion damage, millions dead, millions more expatriates, complete disintegration of IRI's order of battle - you must be ****ing joking. I wonder what would have happened today if all those Arab countries and Israel in the Arab-Israeli war were the ones that slugged that much damage to each other instead of Iran and Iraq during Iran-Iraq war)

Iran's economic growth was stagnant until recently.

If political stability can be ensured and no destructive war would take place, Iran will be back to what it was before the Iran-Iraq war before the next decade is over.

Whether or not that's a good thing is anyone's guess.

For us back in the East it's all good. A lot of $$ and Iran would never attack us. Yay.

11-07-2009, 07:41 AM	#1
Korath Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Progresja Age: 37 Posts: 1,484	Iran may be the new Israel for some Surfing through various forums, blogs, etc. on the Middle East I found a recurrent idea: Iran may be the new Israel: the enemy on whom we blame all our troubles. (this is a quote from http://mideasti.blogspot.com/2009/09...g-subtext.html). Now that's an interesting idea. If Iran really would be perceived by Sunni countries as a bigger thread than Israel than a new political situation in the region may emerge. I know that right now it's a political-fiction scenario, but still... an interesting thought, isn't it?

11-07-2009, 08:03 AM	#2
Ambassador Member Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 518	This political quagmire is going to ensnare a lot of players in it in the very near future if situations keep deteriorating. So many emerging economic and political powers have turned there attention towards Iran/Iraq because the Sunni Muslim countries are already very heavily jam-packed with Western investments and establishments after having been under the American/Western circle of influence for so long. (Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia) Iran and Iraq are the wide-open doorways to establishing the East's and Russia's own strategic interests in the Middle East. The first three emerging powers to jump in will be the proximal countries like Russia, China and Turkey. Next to jump in will be countries a bit farther away like India and South Korea. You would see a new form of cold war going on in this one. Even if the West put sanctions on Iran and the Sunni Muslims followed suit by cutting their multilateral ties with it, it's unlikely that the aforementioned five countries (and some more) will be willing to just keep Iran in the darkness. When Russia/China/Turkey/India/South Korea refuse to isolate Iran after all these efforts by the Western and Western-backed powers to obliterate Iran's strategic influence, you'll be seeing a lot of geopolitical friction between the East and the West. Imagining from my own country's perspective: U.S.:Oi, South Korea, cut your ties with Iran. South Korea: What the hell, man? What comes next? Are we really gonna abandon our precious chance to become Iran's 2nd largest trade partner? Probably we'll be filling up the economic vacuum left from the mass strategic exodus of the West and the Sunni Muslims.

11-07-2009, 08:04 AM	#3
Switek Diagnosis: chronic mpnetoholism (F99.9) Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Greater Poland (Potatoland) Age: 40 Posts: 10,218	Why not? Saudi - Iranian tensions about their ambitions to lead Muslim world are obviously seen. Add tho this nuclear ambitions of Iran which are the same threat for both Israel and Sunnis (what is very often forgotten).

11-07-2009, 08:38 AM	#4
Korath Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Progresja Age: 37 Posts: 1,484	I think Israel has a lot to win by exploiting this opportunity. It may loose the image of the devilish arch-enemy of the region. It doesn't mean stability in the Middle East though...

11-07-2009, 08:50 AM	#6
Ambassador Member Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 518	Israel simply looks less interesting than Iran now to most of us. At least in the East.

11-07-2009, 09:42 AM	#8
Ambassador Member Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 518	Israel will be as fine as ever with the West eternally backing it. It's Iran's strategic interest that's at stake. From this moment until the near future Iran's greatest allies will always be found to its East.

11-07-2009, 09:10 PM	#14
Mastermind Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Nevada USA Posts: 4,881	I was watching a show this last week that as background, modern Israel...and then I wen to my computer and took a look at some pics of Iran...what a small difference. Both seem to be completely westernized 9except for a few folks dressed "traditionally"...and the head scarves on the women in Iran did not seem too much of a throwback to the ancient ways. It was just a seeming shame these tow modern nations have to be threateneing bloood and burning death...for what? Iran leaders are so full of crap...all that saber rattling and Isreali leaders so ready to finger point and say, "See...see what monsters?" Let this s4it get out of hand just for a second and the whole world will change in a blink of an eye to something we would all rather not see.

11-07-2009, 10:26 PM	#15
Ambassador Member Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 518	Iran looked magnificent during the age of the Shah. It was the wealthiest and the most prosperous country in the Middle East. The Iran-Iraq war largely obliterated that beauty though. So many infrastructures destroyed, labor force and industry compromised, immense humanitarian and economic damage, etc. (8 years of war, $500+ billion damage, millions dead, millions more expatriates, complete disintegration of IRI's order of battle - you must be ****ing joking. I wonder what would have happened today if all those Arab countries and Israel in the Arab-Israeli war were the ones that slugged that much damage to each other instead of Iran and Iraq during Iran-Iraq war) Iran's economic growth was stagnant until recently. If political stability can be ensured and no destructive war would take place, Iran will be back to what it was before the Iran-Iraq war before the next decade is over. Whether or not that's a good thing is anyone's guess. For us back in the East it's all good. A lot of $$ and Iran would never attack us. Yay.